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ZERO UM:+5% chance of jail◆TIKTOKER:+2% chance of jail◆CARLUXO:+5% chance of jail◆DELEGADO:+5% chance of jail◆TERÇA LIVRE:+4% chance of jail◆ZUCK:+5% chance of jail◆NETINHO DO GENERAL:+6% chance of jail◆BIBI:+5% chance of jail◆EL LOCO:+3% chance of jail◆DOUTOR WILLER:+5% chance of jail◆MICHEQUE:+6% chance of jail◆BANANINHA:+7% chance of jail◆ZERO QUATRO:+5% chance of jail◆LARANJÃO:+6% chance of jail◆ZERO UM:+5% chance of jail◆TIKTOKER:+2% chance of jail◆CARLUXO:+5% chance of jail◆DELEGADO:+5% chance of jail◆TERÇA LIVRE:+4% chance of jail◆ZUCK:+5% chance of jail◆NETINHO DO GENERAL:+6% chance of jail◆BIBI:+5% chance of jail◆EL LOCO:+3% chance of jail◆DOUTOR WILLER:+5% chance of jail◆MICHEQUE:+6% chance of jail◆BANANINHA:+7% chance of jail◆ZERO QUATRO:+5% chance of jail◆LARANJÃO:+6% chance of jail◆
Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro
01“ZERO UM”
R$ 106,470
wagered

Fled 8 days ago

the crowd says
Nov/26
CROWD58%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail42%
Jailed · 42%Stays on the run · 58%

Flávio Bolsonaro

Left Brazil after losing the runoff and having his passports cancelled by the Supreme Court. Under investigation in three inquiries. Denies everything.

Sourcescbsnews.com ↗cnnbrasil.com.br ↗
  • Under investigation · 2026
  • Dropped/annulled · 2022

42%

Arrest chance

25%

in 30 days

17%

in 6 months

1%

by 2027

58%

never

Arrest date
Nov/26Jun/27Dec/27
Details →
Live · ZERO UM9 comments

Comments · 0

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Propaganda eleitoral
Casa de apostasVazouBolso.Bet
VICE Ra$hadinha01
O Brazil vai fugir do Brasil
Nikolas Maduro
Nikolas Maduro
“TIKTOKER”
R$ 116,380
wagered

Under investigation

the crowd says
Nov/26
CROWD44%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail56%
Jailed · 56%Gets away · 44%

Nikolas Maduro

Under investigation by Minas Gerais' electoral court for spreading a fake report attributed to the Federal Police about the Vorcaro case. The electoral court barred him from reposting removed content. Posted about Flávio leaving, deleted it, and reposted with "allegedly".

Sourcesdiariocarioca.com ↗tse.jus.br ↗gcmais.com.br ↗
  • Under investigation · 2026
  • Not criminal · 2026

56%

Arrest chance

30%

in 30 days

26%

in 6 months

0%

by 2027

44%

never

12%

Escape chance

6%

in 30 days

3%

in 6 months

3%

by 2027

88%

never

Arrest dateEscape date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Carlos Bolsonaro
Carlos Bolsonaro
02“CARLUXO”
R$ 109,710
wagered

Under investigation

the crowd says
Jan/27
CROWD50%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail50%
Jailed · 50%Gets away · 50%

Carlos Bolsonaro

Searched by the Federal Police in 2024 in the 'parallel Abin' spying case and indicted by the police in 2025 with Ramagem and more than 30 others. Says it's electoral persecution.

Sourcescongressoemfoco.com.br ↗gazetadopovo.com.br ↗
  • Under investigation · 2025

50%

Arrest chance

17%

in 30 days

17%

in 6 months

15%

by 2027

50%

never

15%

Escape chance

3%

in 30 days

5%

in 6 months

8%

by 2027

85%

never

Arrest dateEscape date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Alexandre Ramagem
Alexandre Ramagem
“DELEGADO”
R$ 60,690
wagered

Convicted

the crowd says
Dec/26
CROWD51%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail49%
Jailed · 49%Gets away · 51%

Alexandre Ramagem

Convicted by the Supreme Court in the coup plot. Slipped out through Roraima in 2025 and is in the US.

Sourcesoimparcial.com.br ↗diariodocomercio.com.br ↗
  • Convicted · 2025

49%

Arrest chance

23%

in 30 days

20%

in 6 months

6%

by 2027

51%

never

Arrest date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Allan dos Santos
Allan dos Santos
“TERÇA LIVRE”
R$ 62,440
wagered

Under investigation

the crowd says
Jan/27
CROWD53%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail47%
Jailed · 47%Gets away · 53%

Allan dos Santos

Pre-trial arrest ordered since 2021; lives in the US. In 2024 the US refused to extradite him.

Sourcesbemparana.com.br ↗
  • Under investigation · 2021

47%

Arrest chance

12%

in 30 days

25%

in 6 months

10%

by 2027

53%

never

Arrest date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Paulo Figueiredo
Paulo Figueiredo
“NETINHO DO GENERAL”
R$ 47,560
wagered

Charged

the crowd says
Nov/26
CROWD56%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail44%
Jailed · 44%Gets away · 56%

Paulo Figueiredo

Lives in Florida and is considered a fugitive.

Sourcesapublica.org ↗
  • Charged · 2025

44%

Arrest chance

29%

in 30 days

8%

in 6 months

7%

by 2027

56%

never

Arrest date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Willer Tomaz
Willer Tomaz
“DOUTOR WILLER”
R$ 89,090
wagered

Under investigation

the crowd says
Apr/27
CROWD62%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail38%
Jailed · 38%Gets away · 62%

Willer Tomaz

Lawyer and friend of Flávio, investigated for laundering through online betting; in the US since August. The Supreme Court froze up to R$6bn in assets. Denies everything.

Sourcesnews.bitcoin.com ↗time.com ↗
  • Under investigation · 2026

38%

Arrest chance

7%

in 30 days

18%

in 6 months

13%

by 2027

62%

never

Arrest date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Michelle Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro
“MICHEQUE”
R$ 148,250
wagered

Case dropped

the crowd says
Jan/27
CROWD68%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail32%
Jailed · 32%Gets away · 68%

Michelle Bolsonaro

Received at least R$89k in cheques from Queiroz between 2011 and 2016. The Supreme Court shelved the request to investigate in 2021: the prosecutor saw no crime. Jair said it was a loan being repaid.

Sourcescongressoemfoco.com.br ↗agazeta.com.br ↗
  • Dropped/annulled · 2021

32%

Arrest chance

8%

in 30 days

22%

in 6 months

2%

by 2027

68%

never

10%

Escape chance

5%

in 30 days

3%

in 6 months

3%

by 2027

90%

never

Arrest dateEscape date
Nov/26Jun/27Dec/27
Details →
Eduardo Bolsonaro
Eduardo Bolsonaro
03“BANANINHA”
R$ 74,670
wagered

Convicted

the crowd says
Feb/27
CROWD69%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail31%
Jailed · 31%Gets away · 69%

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Living in the US since 2025. Convicted in absentia to 4 years for coercion; arrest warrant issued.

Sourcescbsnews.com ↗apublica.org ↗
  • Convicted · 2026
  • Charged · 2025

31%

Arrest chance

5%

in 30 days

17%

in 6 months

10%

by 2027

69%

never

Arrest date
Nov/26Jun/27Dec/27
Details →
Jair Renan Bolsonaro
Jair Renan Bolsonaro
04“ZERO QUATRO”
R$ 137,400
wagered

Case dropped

the crowd says
Dec/26
CROWD70%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail30%
Jailed · 30%Gets away · 70%

Jair Renan Bolsonaro

Elected to Congress for Santa Catarina in 2026 with 131,555 votes. Became a defendant in 2024 over a loan backed by a false document; the Federal District court and the STJ threw the case out in 2026. In October a paper reported he had just become a defendant: it was the 2024 decision.

Sourcespoder360.com.br ↗fatoamazonico.com.br ↗ururau.com.br ↗
  • Dropped/annulled · 2026
  • Dropped/annulled · 2022

30%

Arrest chance

10%

in 30 days

19%

in 6 months

1%

by 2027

70%

never

8%

Escape chance

5%

in 30 days

2%

in 6 months

1%

by 2027

92%

never

Arrest dateEscape date
Nov/26Jun/27Dec/27
Details →
Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg
“ZUCK”
R$ 73,710
wagered

Clean record

the crowd says
Nov/26
CROWD55%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail45%
Jailed · 45%Gets away · 55%

Mark Zuckerberg

No criminal case. He's building a compound on Kauai, Hawaii, with a roughly 5,000 sq ft underground shelter, per Wired (2023). He says it's "like a basement".

Sourcesfortune.com ↗
  • Not criminal · 2019

45%

Arrest chance

25%

in 30 days

18%

in 6 months

3%

by 2027

55%

never

25%

Escape chance

7%

in 30 days

13%

in 6 months

5%

by 2027

75%

never

Arrest dateEscape date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu
“BIBI”
R$ 123,910
wagered

Defendant

the crowd says
Dec/26
CROWD59%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail41%
Jailed · 41%Gets away · 59%

Benjamin Netanyahu

Israel's prime minister. Wanted on an International Criminal Court arrest warrant since Nov 2024 and on trial for corruption in Israel since 2020. Denies everything.

Sourcesbloomberg.com ↗aljazeera.com ↗
  • Under investigation · 2024
  • Defendant · 2020

41%

Arrest chance

15%

in 30 days

12%

in 6 months

14%

by 2027

59%

never

2%

Escape chance

1%

in 30 days

0%

in 6 months

0%

by 2027

98%

never

Arrest dateEscape date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Javier Milei
Javier Milei
“EL LOCO”
R$ 114,520
wagered

Under investigation

the crowd says
Nov/26
CROWD61%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail39%
Jailed · 39%Gets away · 61%

Javier Milei

Argentina's president. Under investigation by Argentina's federal courts in the $LIBRA case, the cryptocurrency he promoted online in Feb 2025.

Sourceslagaceta.com.ar ↗
  • Under investigation · 2025

39%

Arrest chance

24%

in 30 days

14%

in 6 months

2%

by 2027

61%

never

2%

Escape chance

1%

in 30 days

1%

in 6 months

0%

by 2027

98%

never

Arrest dateEscape date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
“LARANJÃO”
R$ 133,210
wagered

Convicted

the crowd says
Nov/26
CROWD74%nowFeb/27May/27Aug/27Nov/27never
Chance of jail26%
Jailed · 26%Gets away · 74%

Donald Trump

Convicted on 34 counts in New York in 2024 and sentenced with no jail time. On Flávio: "It would be OK with me."

Sourcescbsnews.com ↗
  • Convicted · 2024
  • Dropped/annulled · 2024

26%

Arrest chance

14%

in 30 days

12%

in 6 months

0%

by 2027

74%

never

1%

Escape chance

1%

in 30 days

0%

in 6 months

0%

by 2027

99%

never

Arrest dateEscape date
Oct/26May/27Dec/27
Details →
Fake ad
Executive Getaway CaseSilent wheels. Fits the whole family.
Fictional product. X-ray not included.
Pays a bonusDaily: Marinho's next line on the whereabouts?
R$ 7,320
wagered

23 bettors · closed

Tuesday: "He's taking a break today." Then: "None of us has any information on his whereabouts." Then: "I understand, I didn't say I agree." The man is a soap opera.

Pays a bonusDaily: does Nikolas slip in another "allegedly" by tomorrow?
R$ 10,120
wagered

10 bettors · closed

Posted about Flávio leaving, deleted it, reposted with "allegedly". The electoral court already barred him from reposting removed content. Allegedly, of course.

Pays a bonusDaily: who gets more headlines tomorrow, the bets or Flávio?
R$ 10,420
wagered

16 bettors · closed

Brazil's 85 betting licences lapsed on runoff Sunday, the same day he did. And his lawyer friend is investigated for laundering through online betting. Denies everything.

Who's the next one to bail?
R$ 55,850
wagered

45 bettors · closes in 57d

Flávio left on Tuesday with his ID card, a cap and a jet that flew around Brazil. The queue moves on.

Diaspora map: where does the next fugitive turn up?
R$ 41,390
wagered

62 bettors · closes in 238d

So far: Texas, Florida, Miami and the Roraima border. Italy is eyeing your passports.

Does Flávio come back to Brazil by 31 December?
R$ 50,350
wagered

31 bettors · closes in 57d

Monday: "I never thought of leaving the country." Wednesday: Miami.

What comes back to Brazil first: the bets or Flávio?
R$ 39,740
wagered

51 bettors · closes in 238d

Brazil's 85 betting licences lapsed on runoff Sunday. So did he. The Supreme Court hears appeals against the ban on 3 Nov.

Does the US extradite any of the gang by the end of 2027?
R$ 41,970
wagered

30 bettors · closes in 422d

In 2024 they refused Allan dos Santos: "crimes of opinion". Trump on Flávio: "It would be OK with me."

Does Nikolas edit another post to slip in an "allegedly" this week?
R$ 45,440
wagered

40 bettors · closes in 30h51

The campaign coordinator's next line
R$ 52,830
wagered

55 bettors · closes in 11d

How many times does he say he "didn't flee" by Sunday?
R$ 12,270
wagered

7 bettors · closed

Does Dark Horse open in Brazil before Flávio comes back?
R$ 50,310
wagered

35 bettors · closes in 422d

His father's biopic, starring Jim Caviezel, screened for distributors at the Fraud Fighter Summit in Las Vegas. Brazilian release: 2027. Funding negotiated with the Banco Master banker: up to R$134M, per the Intercept. He says it was private investment.

Already caught

Jair Bolsonaro

CAUGHT

Jair Bolsonaro

Carla Zambelli

FLED (Italy) · May 25, 2025

Carla Zambelli

Daniel Vorcaro

CAUGHT

Daniel Vorcaro